What Can We Hope For Indigenous Peoples Regarding Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in 2024?

Azmal Hossan*

When we just started another year in the Gregorian Calendar, there are some worth sharing updates in the field of global climate change mitigation and adaptation. The latest United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) – held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 12 last year – ended with an agreement that signals the “beginning of the end” of the world’s fossil fuel dependency known as the main responsible factor for global warming. This agreement is considered the first ‘Global Stocktake’ (GST) to enhance climate action before the end of the decade to limit global temperature rise to 1.5oC compared to the pre-industrial level set by the Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 countries. At the same conference, the global leaders also agreed to develop a Loss and Damage Fund to assist developing countries vulnerable to climate change so that they can adapt to its devastating impacts. The fund was first agreed upon at COP27 which took place in November 2022 in Egypt and now turned into a reality. Wealthy countries that contribute most to the global warming process pledged to donate around $700M to the fund. Although this amount is equivalent to less than 0.2% of economic and noneconomic losses suffered by developing countries due to the global warming problem, leaders of the developed countries hailed COP28 as historic. They are considering the steps taken during the conference as a “transition away” from fossil fuels and the beginning of assistance for the developing countries, respectively.

However, Indigenous Peoples and climate justice activists expressed their complete dissatisfaction with the outcomes of COP28. To them, the deals and decisions taking place during the conference are unfair, inequitable, and business as usual. According to them, global climate change negotiation has failed to recognize climate change as a global justice issue and did not consider the two most important aspects of environmental injustice: distributive and procedural justice. Developing countries and indigenous communities around the world contributed the least to the problem but have been suffering the most. Developed countries like the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and EU contributed the most and suffered the least. These countries became rich by burning fossil fuels and are therefore most responsible for the climate catastrophe. This is a distributive injustice. So, it is the primary responsibility of the developed countries to help the victims which is missing in the GST. On the other hand, there will be no representation by the Indigenous Peoples in the loss and damage fund regulatory board to be made up of 26 members (14 developing countries and 12 developed countries). This is a procedural injustice. It will be so difficult for the Indigenous Peoples to get access to the loss and damage fund without any representations on how the fund will be distributed among the recipients. Indigenous Peoples and climate justice activists are also doubtful about the effectiveness of proposed expensive, and niche abatement technologies such as carbon capture and storage, blue hydrogen, carbon markets, and geoengineering with little safeguards. For them, these initiatives will likely intensify land grabs, water scarcity, and deadly pollution for mostly Indigenous and other marginalized groups. This dissatisfaction is reflected in the argument of Tom Goldtooth, the director of the Indigenous Environmental Network: “We watched first-hand as the fossil fuel polluters and wealthy governments manipulated developing countries to undermine real action on climate change … [while] our strong messages of fossil fuel phase-out fell on deaf ears and instead more false solutions will accelerate climate change and deforestation … The UN climate change conference has failed humanity and Mother Earth.”

But the above-mentioned policy level scenarios on climate change mitigation and adaptation are just one side of the coin. With all the odds, there are some good news for Indigenous communities, at least from climate change knowledge production and dissemination perspectives. In 2023, we received two most authentic peer-reviewed scientific reports on the knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, climate change mitigation and adaptation: The Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and The Fifth National Climate Assessment Report published by the United States Global Change Research Program. IPCC is the highest United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. The Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report is a combination of the reports of the three Working Groups of the IPCC (Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, and Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change), as well as on the three Special Reports on Global Warming of 1.5oC, on Climate Change and Land, and on the Ocean and the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Similarly, the Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States. Both reports acknowledge that Indigenous Peoples globally and in the United States, respectively, are on the frontline of climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation because of their integral connection to nature and natural resource dependency for their survival. The IPCC synthesis report argues that climate change brought widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people and they are unequally distributed across systems, regions, and sectors. The report specifically focuses on cultural losses due to climate change for which Indigenous Peoples are losing their sense of belonging, valued cultural practices, identity, and home. These losses combined with systemic barriers (i.e., limited resources, lack of private sector and civic engagement, insufficient mobilization of finance, lack of political commitment, limited research and/slow and low uptake of adaptation science, and a low sense of urgency) threaten the inherent climate change adaptive capacities of the Indigenous Peoples. For example, changes in snow cover, lake and river ice, and permafrost in many Arctic regions are threatening the livelihoods and cultural identity of the Indigenous Peoples in the region. The report urges global leaders to engage Indigenous Peoples and their traditional ecological knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to achieve the desired goals set by the Paris Agreement. Similarly, the US Fifth National Climate Assessment Report also acknowledges the importance of Indigenous Peoples and their traditional ecological knowledge dedicating a full chapter. It argues that critical aspects of Indigenous People’s well-being (i.e., livelihoods, health, nutrition, cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories) are negatively affected by climate change. The report identified Indigenous People’s right to self-determination as the crucial component of their climate change adaptation capacity often undermined by settler colonial institutions and policies. It argues that federal and state government should expand their support to uphold Indigenous Peoples’ right to self-determination so that they can be resilient against changing climate.

Given the importance two most highly authentic scientific reports on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation put on Indigenous Peoples globally and in the United States, it is a matter of hope that Indigenous Peoples and their traditional ecological knowledge are gaining momentum in the climate change discourses. With these positive vibes, we would like to start 2024 as a new journey to continue our fight against structural barriers so that we can achieve a fair, equitable, and resilient future in the face of climate change.

* Azmal Hossan is a Ph.D. student of Sociology and a National Research Trainee of Interdisciplinary Training, Education, and Research in Food-Energy-Water Systems at Colorado State University. He has been working with Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance as a Student Intern since May 2023. His email address is azmal.hossan@colostate.edu